Proper now, Harris is at about 67M (N.Y. Occasions information), however about 45% of California votes aren’t but included in that tally, plus 30% of Oregon votes, 35% of Washington votes, 35% of Arizona votes, and a few extra in different states. Provided that to this point the 54% of California votes which have been counted are cut up 5.6M for Harris to three.9M for Trump, that means the remaining 46% will add roughly 4.8M to Harris’s tally and roughly 3.3M to Trump’s.
I went via the N.Y. Occasions map and entered the information from the states which weren’t listed as >95% reporting, and projecting from present totals, it looks like Harris is prone to get in all probability about 9M extra, for a complete of about 76M. Trump’s widespread vote will likewise develop significantly past his present 72M, to about 79M. That anticipated cut up (76M to 79M) is likely to be in comparison with the 2020 last outcomes, which favored Biden by 81M to 74M; it thus seems that we’ll in the end see a probable swing of about 5M votes, give or take 1,000,000 or so, I might guess.
I point out this as a result of I have been seeing folks suggesting that the decline from Biden’s 81M to Harris’s 67M is extremely suspicious. However, once more, that does not make a lot sense, as a result of that is evaluating last 2020 totals to far-from-final 2024 totals.
In fact, I might like to see extra dependable estimates than my fairly tough calculations. UPDATE: The University of Florida Election Lab estimates that 158.5M ballots had been counted, which means that there are 19.5M ballots left to rely; that is increased than my estimate of 16M left over, however nonetheless in step with the broad level that the present totals are removed from last.
