Authorities figures obtained by The PIE present 62% of candidates have been refused a research allow from January to July this yr, with record-high volumes “elevating pressing questions on transparency and software readiness,” mentioned ApplyBoard.
Regardless of a decade of comparatively steady approval scores hovering round 60%, charges have plummeted to 38% to date this yr, down from 48% in 2024 following the implementation of Canada’s research allow caps.
“It’s clear that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is making use of far higher scrutiny to new functions,” Jonathan Sherman, vice chairman of gross sales & partnership at BorderPass instructed The PIE, pointing to a “elementary shift” in authorities processing.
Indian college students – who comprise 40% of Canada’s international student population – have been hardest hit by hovering refusals, with 4 out of 5 Indian college students receiving rejections in Q2 2025, in accordance with BorderPass.
Stakeholders have pointed to a glimmer of hope in general approval scores rising modestly this spring, although with no “dramatic shift,” Canada will solely attain one fifth of the federal government’s worldwide pupil goal for the yr, Sherman warned.
With establishments bracing for extreme declines, ApplyBoard evaluation has discovered the most typical purpose for purpose for rejection in 2024 was the notion by IRCC officers that college students wouldn’t depart Canada after their research, cited in over 75% of circumstances.
“Whereas reviewers at IRCC perceive that some future college students hope to realize work expertise in Canada after commencement… the intensive use of this purpose final yr means that many are perceived as having everlasting residency as their major goal, as a substitute of research,” acknowledged the report.
Monetary issues drove three of the highest 5 refusal causes, after Canada greater than doubled its proof-of-funds necessities from $10,000 in 2023 to $20,635 in 2024.
Particularly, in 53% of circumstances, IRCC officers mentioned they have been unconvinced that candidates would go away Canada based mostly on monetary belongings, alongside doubts about inadequate assets for tuition and dwelling bills.
“Whereas new coverage caps performed a job, our full-year knowledge factors to recurring applicant challenges, notably round monetary readiness and immigration intent which are preventable with the precise steerage and documentation,” mentioned ApplyBoard.
The report highlighted the persevering with decline of unspecified causes for refusal, following IRCC including officer choice notes to visa refusal letters final month, which was welcomed as a much-needed step in bettering transparency.
Different causes for refusal embody the aim of go to being inconsistent with a brief keep and having no important household ties outdoors Canada.
The information comes amid a significant immigration crackdown in Canada, with non permanent resident targets included within the newest Immigration Levels Plan for the primary time, which goals to cut back non permanent resident volumes to five% of the inhabitants by the tip of 2027 – a yr later than the earlier authorities’s goal.
Many are perceived as having everlasting residency as their major goal, as a substitute of research
ApplyBoard
Approval charges are additionally beneath common for different non permanent resident classes, however none so drastically as research permits, with slightly below half of all customer visas accredited to date this yr, in comparison with a ten-year common of 64%.
After greater than 18 months of federal coverage turbulence, altering eligibility guidelines have seemingly contributed to the rise in research allow rejection charges.
Stress to cut back IRCC backlogs and attain bold authorities targets is also enjoying a job, in accordance with immigration legal professionals talking to the Toronto Star.
As of July 31, over 40% of Canada’s immigration stock was in backlog, together with 56% of customer visas, 46% of labor visas and 23% of research visas, in accordance with official knowledge.
Following a swathe of latest IRCC officer hires, Sherman mentioned he anticipated to see enhancements in consistency, although “processing backlogs could worsen earlier than they get higher,” he warned.
Amid the challenges, educators and advisers are doubling down on what candidates and establishments can do to make sure the very best probability of success, with ApplyBoard warning that any incomplete or ineligible documentation could be grounds for refusal.
