As I reviewed the brand new IPEDS information launch final week, I used to be on the lookout for the information and intelligence that may be most useful for on-line enrollment leaders to have in hand to underpin and inform this yr’s success. These factors, together with key traits that turned clear in different sources I reviewed late final yr will allow on-line leaders to succeed this yr in addition to plan for the longer term.
Be aware that I’m not discussing adjustments that will emerge after January 20, however I might be doing so after a protracted discuss I’ve scheduled with Cheryl Dowd from WCET who tracks on-line laws and with whom I might be co-presenting on the RNL National Conference this summer time.
So, what do you should know?
1. On-line and partially on-line enrollment proceed to dominate development.
4 years after the pandemic, extra college students annually are persevering with to resolve to enroll in both totally or partially on-line examine. Whereas year-over-year change in each post-pandemic yr has seen some “return to the classroom,” in comparison with pre-pandemic enrollment (2019), 2.3 million extra undergraduates and 450k extra graduate college students are selecting totally or partially on-line examine. Maybe extra vital, 3.2 million fewer undergraduates and 288k fewer graduate college students are selecting classroom-only packages. Establishments searching for to develop enrollment should develop processes to shortly decide the very best on-line packages to supply and get them “to market” inside 12 months.
2. Establishments searching for to develop on-line enrollment at the moment are competing with non-profit establishments.
As lately as 5 years in the past, your strongest competitors got here from for-profit establishments. In some methods, these establishments have been simple to beat (excepting their big advertising and marketing budgets). They’d taken a beating within the press to the extent that college students knew about it, and so they have been far-off and unknown. At the moment, establishments face no much less of a aggressive surroundings, however the establishments dominating the scene – and most certainly a college students’ search outcomes – are nationwide non-profits. These establishments are, after all, not native so that they aren’t well-known, however they haven’t been via the scrutiny which eroded curiosity within the for-profits. Pupil search engine outcomes are additionally now full of bold private and non-private establishments searching for to “variety their income streams.” As such, institutional entrepreneurs want to regulate their methods targeted on efficiently positioning their packages in a crowded market, understanding that they’ll “win” the coed over the nationwide on-line suppliers in the event that they make sure that they rise to the highest of search outcomes.
3. On-line enrollment development is being led by non-profit establishments.
Seventeen of the 20 establishments reporting the best development in on-line enrollment over the past 5 years are nonprofit establishments—a mixture of bold private and non-private establishments and nationwide non-profits. What’s extra, the overall development amongst establishments after the 2 behemoths far exceeds Southern New Hampshire College and Western Governors College. These nimble and dynamic establishments embody a wide range of establishment sorts (with neighborhood schools nicely represented) throughout the upper schooling sector. Establishments searching for to develop on-line enrollment ought to analysis what these establishments are providing and the way they’re positioning their packages available in the market and emulate a few of their greatest practices.
4. New graduate program development is dominated by on-line/partially on-line choices.
In 2024, a research study by Robert Kelchen documented development within the variety of out there grasp’s packages within the U.S. over the past 15 years. Not solely did Kelchen doc an enormous growth in availability (over the 15-year interval, establishments launched almost 14,000 new grasp’s packages on a base of about 20,000), but in addition that the tempo of launching on-line or hybrid packages dramatically outpaces classroom packages. This rise in out there choices far outpaces the speed of development of the web pupil market, leading to considerably greater ranges of competitors for every on-line pupil. Establishments searching for to develop their on-line footprint should make sure that they totally perceive each the precise demand dynamics for every of their packages and the specifics of what on-line college students need of their program. A mismatch on both issue will inhibit development.
5. On-line success is breeding scrutiny of outcomes.
Everyone knows one thing of the facility of social media as we speak. This was strengthened for me lately by an tech-innovation/teaching-learning/2025/01/08/large-online-colleges-students-struggle-earn?utm_source=Inside+Increased+Ed&utm_campaign=f7c49cb0d7-DNU_2021_COPY_03&utm_medium=e mail&utm_term=0_1fcbc04421-f7c49cb0d7-236384502&mc_cid=f7c49cb0d7″ goal=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>Inside Increased Schooling story which targeted on the 8-year charges of diploma completion among the many largest on-line suppliers. The story was triggered by a broadly learn Linked IN submit and adopted up by quite a few different tales and posts and feedback throughout the platform. That is simply the sort of publicity that’s most certainly to generate actual scrutiny of the outcomes of on-line studying – which have been already taking form over the past yr or extra. In reality, this deal with outcomes ended up as one of many unfulfilled priorities of the Biden Schooling Division. I’ve lengthy stated that establishments searching for to enter the web house have a possibility to sort out a number of the high quality points that first plagued the for-profits, now problem the nationwide on-line non-profits, and can confront others if not addressed quickly.
6. Key preferences for on-line examine have been modified by the pandemic.
RNL’s personal 2024 on-line pupil survey surfaced dozens of vital findings that on-line leaders ought to think about as they chart their course. Two findings stand out as reflecting profound adjustments in on-line pupil preferences, and each are probably the results of pandemic-era experiences. First, all however 11 % of on-line college students instructed us that they’re open to at the least some synchronous actions of their program, probably the results of a whole lot of on-line conferences throughout the pandemic. Equally, they instructed us that the best time to speak with recruiters/counselors from on-line packages is now throughout enterprise hours. That is additionally prone to be associated to the pandemic interval, through which tens of millions of individuals working from residence started to often deal with some private enterprise throughout their day. Establishments ought to assess each of those elements as they suppose via pupil engagement (to handle level #5), and the extraordinary competitors of the web house (to handle level #3).
7. Contracting establishments will not be specializing in on-line enrollment.
Lastly, we return to the brand new IPEDS information to see that establishments which have skilled the best enrollment contraction over the past 5 years display nearly no entry to completely on-line examine (darkish blue traces within the chart beneath), and solely restricted entry to packages through which college students can enroll in each on-line and classroom programs (mild blue traces). Even the place there was some on-line or partially on-line development, these efforts haven’t been given ample consideration to counterbalance contraction amongst college students enrolled in classroom-only packages (inexperienced traces). These information once more make it clear (as acknowledged in level #1) that establishments dealing with classroom-only contraction should both amend their targets to account for decreased enrollment or decide which on-line or hybrid packages can be most tasty to college students of their area after which make sure that such choices are seen in a extremely aggressive greater schooling market.
Discover extra at our webinar
Be a part of us for a deeper dive into traits throughout our webinar, 5 Enrollment Trends You Need to Know for 2025. This dialogue with me and quite a lot of my RNL skilled colleagues will have a look at analysis and traits that ought to form strategic and tactical planning over the subsequent 12 months. Notably, as we enter what has been recognized as the primary yr of the “demographic cliff,” data-informed decision-making might be extra vital to enrollment well being than ever earlier than. Register now.
