With the four-week visa interview pause beginning on Could 27, together with SEVIS terminations, and journey bans impacting worldwide college students’ possibilities to review within the US, there was a close to 22% drop in F-1 visa issuances in Could 2025 in comparison with Could 2024.
Practically 60% of that decline was pushed by falling numbers from India and China – the US’s largest sources of worldwide college students for practically 20 years – marking what is probably going probably the most important drop because the Covid-19 pandemic.
Whereas in India, 6,984 F-1 visas had been issued in Could 2025 in contrast with 11,829 in Could 2024, China noticed 14,409 issued in comparison with 16,987, comprising drops of practically 41% and 15.2% drops, respectively.
Although India overtook China for the primary time in 15 years as the highest supply within the US, each nations collectively accounted for over 54% of all worldwide college students in 2023–24.
Over 330,000 Indian college students had been learning within the US, in comparison with roughly 275,000 from China, based on the latest IIE Open Doorways data for 2023–24, which incorporates worldwide college students on Non-compulsory Sensible Coaching (OPT).
The large year-on-year drop in Could 2025 from the 2 Asian nations coincides with a current ApplyBoard report exhibiting that in H1 2025, F-1 visa issuances fell under 100,000 for the primary time in 4 years.
Whereas the variety of F-1 visas issued to Indian college students dropped by 44% in H1 2025 to 14,700, down from a peak of 30,854 in H1 2023, China noticed a discount from 14,709 research visas issued in H1 2024 to 11,167 in H1 2025, a virtually 24% decline.
My contacts in China inform me that they need to wait till January 2026 earlier than recommending Chinese language college students start their research within the USA
John Wilson, Wilson Worldwide Pupil Elite Recruiting
“When assessing the present scenario, it’s essential to do not forget that the variety of Chinese language college students within the US had already been declining fairly sharply lately,” Anna Esaki Smith, cofounder of analysis consultancy Education Rethink and creator of Make College Your Superpower, instructed The PIE Information.
“In 2023-2024 there have been 277,398 Chinese language college students within the US, a 4 % decline, and that compares with a peak of 372,532 Chinese language college students in 2019-2020. So, we’re speaking a drop of over 100,000 college students in 4 years.”
With cheaper tuition and better familiarity in different locations, together with the particular administrative area of Hong Kong and nations like Japan, mixed with the political state of affairs within the US, China is now not the “straightforward gold mine” of worldwide schooling, as reported by The PIE Information.
What started as a menace to ban Chinese language research visas over nationwide safety considerations escalated when US secretary of state Marco Rubio vowed to “aggressively revoke visas” for Chinese language college students, notably these linked to the Chinese language Communist Get together and people enrolled in delicate fields.
Regardless of US President Donald Trump signalling a softer stance on permitting Chinese language college students to proceed “utilizing US universities and schools”, perceived hostility has led China to induce its college students to be cautious about learning in sure US states, the place restrictions have been positioned on some nationals.
“Definitely, there will probably be sure diehard college students who’ve nurtured desires of going to an Ivy League college or different selective faculty and can nonetheless head to the US, heightened scrutiny be damned,’ acknowledged Smith.
“However the unwelcoming surroundings will undoubtedly dampen curiosity and easily intensify a downward pattern that has already been set in movement. Sentiment usually leans in the direction of an inevitable decline in Chinese language college students on US campuses come fall.”
In keeping with Charles Solar, founder and managing director of China Education International, Chinese language college students “will watch Trump’s actions,” including that many are now not contemplating the US as their first selection for abroad research.
“Previously, college students aiming for the US would apply solely to American universities. However now, they apply to establishments in a number of nations or areas, some could select the US, Hong Kong, and Australia, whereas others apply to the UK and Singapore,” acknowledged Solar, including that the Chinese language authorities can be encouraging college students to enrol in transnational schooling (TNE) packages inside China.
Moreover, information means that China’s undergraduate market is pivoting in the direction of the UK, with a current 10% improve in Chinese language college students making use of for UG programs by the UCAS.
And but, declining US curiosity could replicate a brief strategy amongst Chinese language college students and oldsters, who seem like taking a wait and watch stance on how insurance policies unfold within the nation.
“My contacts in China inform me that they need to wait till January 2026 earlier than recommending Chinese language college students start their research within the USA or search to start their research on-line in China,” acknowledged John Wilson of Wilson International Student Elite Recruiting, a Georgia-based organisation offering scholar recruitment companies.
In keeping with Wilson, “regardless of the financial, social, and cultural advantages that Chinese language college students deliver to US larger schooling”, they’re typically considered as “spies, mental property thieves, and visa violators linked to felony components”, by the “nativist” Trump administration.
“Respect is a crucial precept to all potential college students contemplating research within the USA, and above all with the Chinese language. They’re conscious of stories experiences the place worldwide college students are arrested, kidnapped off the streets by masked males, more and more difficult SEVIS laws, revocation of visas, and necessities to evaluate private social media accounts.”
Regardless of India persevering with to steer in US research visa issuances in H1 2025, even with a 44% drop, some Indian schooling consultancies report 70–80% declines in outbound visitors, with college students “refreshing their portal on daily basis” searching for interview slots.
Simply final month, the US embassy in India acknowledged that it can not assure interview slots this summer season for scholar or trade customer visa candidates with out current appointments.
This comes amid heightened social media vetting and background checks of research visa candidates, prompting Indian college students to be more and more cautious.
In response, US college representatives in India are urging candidates to be absolutely clear of their visa functions, citing circumstances the place incomplete disclosure of social media exercise or US-based kin has led to visa problems and delays.
Whereas Indian college students are rethinking plans to review within the US resulting from visa considerations and surveillance fears, these admitted to the coveted, but more and more scrutinised, Ivy Leagues are being suggested by consultants to return house after finishing their research.
“There aren’t sufficient jobs within the US, and my ordinary recommendation is for college kids at locations like Columbia or Harvard to return to India after finishing their research,” stated veteran Mumbai-based marketing consultant Viral Doshi.
“There are many alternatives [in India] now, whether or not it’s pursuing additional schooling, beginning a enterprise, or becoming a member of a startup, as an alternative of staying on to work overseas.”
Vinita Desai, senior adviser for recruiting methods and partnerships at Lehigh University, believes many personal and mid-sized public and analysis universities within the US stay assured of their India technique.
“In response to the evolving challenges, US universities with an lively presence in India are implementing refreshed strategic plans centered on repositioning their model and highlighting distinctive strengths to interact Indian college students extra successfully,” acknowledged Desai.
“Indian college students proceed to view the U.S. as a premier vacation spot for innovation, analysis, and profession development. The present slowdown seems cyclical, and we anticipate curiosity to rebound as coverage readability improves.”
