Editor’s notice: This text is the second in a collection of three, a part of a research exploring the structural components driving outbound pupil mobility in Nigeria and Ghana, inside the bigger context of developments in sub-Saharan Africa. Learn the first article within the collection.
Nigerian college students are more and more looking for academic alternatives overseas, with practically 85,000 enrolled in tertiary packages globally in 2021, together with a rising quantity in China.
Nigeria is probably the most populous nation in Africa. About 220 million folks name Nigeria house. It’s the continent’s second-largest economic system and has been the highest sender of worldwide college students in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for years. Outbound mobility has grown rapidly: Over the previous twenty years, the variety of Nigerians enrolled in tertiary diploma packages in different international locations quadrupled, reaching 84,797 in 2021. The truth that Nigeria is an English-speaking nation with colonial ties to the UK signifies that Nigerian college students have traditionally most well-liked Western research locations. The U.Ok., the US, and Canada registered as prime decisions in 2021, per UNESCO statistics.
As well as, Nigerian college students more and more study in China. China doesn’t share knowledge with UNESCO, neither has it printed latest worldwide pupil statistics. However based on the Chinese language Ministry of Overseas Affairs there have been greater than 60,000 African college students in China in 2016 already, together with some 8,600 Nigerians. To place these numbers in perspective, many of those college students are seemingly enrolled in short-term packages and vocational coaching moderately than in full-fledged tertiary diploma packages.
College students within the U.S. and Canada
Since 2021, the variety of Nigerian college students within the U.S. and Canada has grown at an exceptionally quick charge. The latest visa statistics reflect a 56 p.c enhance within the variety of Nigerian college students within the U.S., to greater than 23,000 in 2024. In Canada, Nigerian worldwide pupil purposes skyrocketed by 260 p.c—or 32,000 college students—from round 13,500 in 2021 to shut to 46,000 in 2023.
The spike in Canada was seemingly pushed, partially, by Nigeria Student Express—a brand new visa stream launched in 2020 whose monetary necessities have been tailor-made to circumstances in Nigeria. Just like the Scholar Direct Stream, a visa program for which Nigeria was not eligible, Nigeria Scholar Specific facilitated software processing occasions. The brand new visa stream was promoted at EduCanada gala’s in Nigeria. Notably, pupil visa approval charges for Nigerians doubled, leaping from solely 17 p.c in 2019 to 34 percent in 2021. As well as, pent-up demand after the pandemic could have performed a task, as has the introduction of extra restrictive visa guidelines in Might 2023 within the U.Ok., the highest vacation spot nation for Nigerian college students.
Nigeria can be one of the crucial necessary recruitment markets for worldwide college students within the subsequent a long time. It’s projected to turn into the world’s third most populous nation by 2050 with about 377 million folks, 53 p.c of whom can be underneath the age of 25.
College seats and high quality jobs are extraordinarily scarce within the nation, and because of this, outmigration is widespread. The so-called Japa syndrome—the mass exodus of Nigerian younger folks to Western international locations—is so omnipresent that 7 out of 10 Nigerians would go away the nation if given the chance, based on recent surveys.
Different surveys discovered that near half of polled Nigerians deliberate to depart the nation inside the subsequent five years, primarily to entry job alternatives and academic packages, in addition to to reunite with household. Escape from political violence was additionally cited as a cause. The U.S. was the popular vacation spot, alongside international locations in Europe and the Center East.
The truth is that choices in Nigeria are restricted. Solely about 12 p.c of university-age folks at the moment take part in greater training. That’s barely above common in SSA however compares with 27 p.c in India.
The Nigerian state can not accommodate the nation’s exploding demand for greater training, and this can be true for the foreseeable future. The variety of college college students within the nation has roughly tripled to about 2.2 million over the previous twenty years—a large spike. However the quantity of highschool college students concurrently grew at a a lot quicker tempo, to about 6 million, which signifies that the college system is stretched past its capability to soak up general demand.
College admissions are consequently extremely aggressive. Just one-third of the 1.8 million candidates who utilized by Nigeria’s centralized college admission system in 2022 have been admitted. That signifies that there are at the moment about 1.2 million younger folks locked out of the system annually. In in style disciplines like drugs, the rejection charges are exponentially greater.
Training spending in Nigeria has persistently been nicely beneath the edge of 15 to twenty p.c of whole authorities expenditures that UNESCO recommends for growing economies. The latest 2024 federal finances allotted 7.9 p.c of expenditures to education. The general public college system is critically underfunded by all accounts. Massive-scale strikes and protests associated to low pay for college instructors and dilapidated infrastructure have rocked Nigerian public universities and disrupted training for years. The present stage of federal greater training spending is barely adequate to keep up the established order, not to mention to fund a significant enlargement of the system or implement substantial high quality enchancment initiatives.
Supplier Panorama
Nigeria has the most important greater training system in Africa. The variety of universities within the nation has jumped from 41 in 1998 to 273 in 2024, and the federal government plans to determine one other 47 public greater training establishments within the coming years.
Nevertheless, as in a number of different growing international locations with budgetary constraints, similar to India, many of the newly established universities are personal establishments. Personal training has been permitted on a bigger scale by the Nigerian authorities for the reason that late Nineties. However whereas personal greater training has performed a pivotal role in increasing capability in India, the entry of personal suppliers in Nigeria has to this point not translated into main enrollment positive aspects. Whereas there are profitable personal establishments, such because the top-ranked Covenant College with some 9,000 college students, many of the 148 personal establishments in Nigeria are smaller area of interest suppliers that enroll lower than 7 p.c of all tertiary college students mixed. Comparatively excessive tuition charges at these establishments are one issue that impedes the expansion of the personal sector.
Open distance studying and on-line training are thought of cost-effective mechanisms to widen entry to greater training and are actively pursued in Nigeria. The Nationwide Open College of Nigeria, a public distance training supplier, is now the most important educational establishment in Nigeria with over 100,000 college students. On-line training, together with by overseas suppliers, is prone to expand considerably because the digital infrastructure of Nigeria matures.
The present authorities additionally seeks to extend transnational college partnerships with overseas establishments. A number of Indian universities reportedly plan to arrange department campuses in Nigeria in the near future. Enrollments by Nigerians in U.Ok. TNE packages quadrupled from near 10,700 in 2018 to over 44,000 in 2022, partially pushed by journey restrictions throughout the pandemic.
That stated, it seems unlikely that these developments will significantly ease Nigeria’s capability disaster and stem the accelerating outflow of scholars within the close to time period. To a big extent, outbound mobility in Nigeria must be understood as a type of “training migration.” A 2022 worldwide pupil survey by the U.Ok. Universities and Faculties Admissions Service, for instance, confirmed that Nigerians prioritize employment alternatives greater than college students from India or different international locations do. Greater than half of Nigerians stated they selected to check overseas to hunt post-study work; 80 p.c wished to higher their profession prospects.
Within the U.Ok., the abolishment of post-study work choices for worldwide college students in 2012 resulted in a significant lower in Nigerian purposes, whereas the re-introduction of those choices in 2019 was adopted by a 335 p.c spike in Nigerian purposes over a span of two years. Most just lately, when the U.Ok. introduced that it could prohibit worldwide bachelor and grasp college students from bringing their relations with them to the nation, demand by Nigerian college students plummeted once more and began to shift in direction of international locations perceived as extra immigrant-friendly.
Financial Elements
The Nigerian economic system doesn’t present sufficient expert jobs for the 600,000 graduates the nation’s greater training system produces annually. By some accounts, 39 p.c of bachelor’s diploma holders have been unemployed in 2020, whereas totally 59 p.c of graduates with a vocationally oriented Larger Nationwide Diploma have been out of labor. Unemployment was a lot decrease for graduate diploma holders, however graduate packages are in brief provide in Nigeria, enrolling just some 250,000 college students in 2023. For the foreseeable future, city middle-class younger folks in cities like Lagos are all however sure to exit the nation in giant numbers. Graduate diploma packages particularly will proceed to be a draw for Nigerian college students. About 67 p.c of Nigerian college students within the U.S. are enrolled on the postgraduate level.
However, restricted buying energy and funding alternatives hamper outbound mobility. Nigeria is claimed to have Africa’s fastest-growing center class. Most approximations of its measurement are dated, however the World Financial institution estimated in 2015 that 20 percent of Nigerians belonged to the center class. Most of them are educated professionals formally employed in personal business and public service in Lagos or different main cities, like Ibadan or Port Harcourt. Nevertheless, earnings ranges inside this group are modest by Western requirements. A latest survey discovered that solely 6 p.c of Nigerians earn greater than 1 million Nigerian naira, or $680 a month at present alternate charges. Few have emergency financial savings; many middle-income households are susceptible to falling into poverty within the occasion of an financial shock. One in five of these in a position to economize stated they have been saving for “japa”; 49 p.c stated that relocating to a different nation was their prime financial aim.
At current, Nigeria faces one of many worst financial crises of its latest previous. The nation’s inflation charge has been excessive for years, averaging 13 p.c between 2012 and 2022, but it surely skyrocketed to over 31 percent in 2024. The depreciation of the nation’s forex, the naira, makes it exhausting for aspiring worldwide college students to go overseas because it will increase the prices they incur for journey, housing, and tuition in different international locations.
The Nigerian authorities has lengthy artificially elevated the naira’s alternate charge by pegging it at a fixed charge to the U.S. greenback however needed to devalue the forex repeatedly lately to draw extra overseas funding. After the newest forex devaluation in early 2024, the naira slipped by 60 p.c in opposition to the U.S. greenback inside a couple of months. As proven within the chart beneath, such speedy alternate charge shifts are carefully correlated to decreases in outbound pupil flows. As of Might 2024, there have been already reports of Nigerian college students being ordered to depart the U.Ok. as a result of they have been falling behind on tuition funds as a result of depreciation of the naira.
In conclusion, Nigeria is an important recruitment market in sub-Saharan Africa. It has huge progress potential as a consequence of push components like admissions bottlenecks, lack of viable employment alternatives, and robust emigration sentiments among the many inhabitants. Nevertheless, outbound pupil flows are mitigated by financial uncertainty, in order that fluctuations in software quantity are seemingly. Within the quick time period, it stays to be seen if the sturdy push components within the nation can override the hostile results of the massive depreciation of the naira in opposition to the U.S. greenback.
