Seeing that it’s February, I believed I’d take the time to remind everybody that mortgage charges are lowest within the month of February!
That is primarily based on my own research wherein I took Freddie Mac Major Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) knowledge going again to 1972.
I tallied up the typical month-to-month fee for the 30-year mounted for the previous 50 years and located that February was by far one of the best.
For the file, January is a detailed second and March isn’t too unhealthy both, however charges are likely to rise because the yr goes on.
In different phrases, when you’re shopping mortgage rates, you would possibly wish to lock on this month.
February Is the Finest Month for Mortgage Charges Traditionally
As you’ll be able to see from my chart, the 30-year mounted averaged 7.62% in February, per Freddie Mac.
We’ve a really giant pattern dimension that extends roughly 50 years so there’s no scarcity of knowledge neither is it a fluke.
In accordance with mentioned knowledge, the 30-year mounted averaged 7.62% in February stretching again to 1972.
That compares to a fee of seven.64% in January and a fee of seven.70% in March.
Then we see charges hit their highest ranges of the yr within the spring and summer season months, with 7.79% the height in Might and June.
It’s sort of fascinating as a result of dwelling gross sales peak round that point too (go determine). So dwelling consumers, on common, get saddled with the best charges.
Recently Mortgage Charges Have Been Lowest in September
For the file, the years 2024 and 2025 didn’t comply with this pattern, as seen in these MND charts.
As a substitute, mortgage rates had been lowest in September in each years, although not for any explicit purpose.
In 2024, they fell for a lot of the yr because the market anticipated the primary Fed fee minimize (and gentle knowledge supported it). Then bounced higher on a hot jobs report and Trump win.
However as anticipated, spring 2024 was the worst time interval for mortgage charges.
In 2025, it was once more gentle financial knowledge after lots of Trump’s new insurance policies like tariffs started to fade all year long.
Curiously, mortgage charges had been highest in January and February in 2025. However the caveat was Trump was newly elected and there was loads of inflation-driven worry on the time.
And once more, mortgage charges weren’t a lot decrease in spring, so once more March/April/Might tended to be not a good time to lock in a rate.
So maybe a special method of wanting on the knowledge is that spring is usually the worst season for mortgage charges.
And winter is commonly one of the best, although you must take note of present occasions, whether or not it’s a Presidential election or the top of Quantitative Easing (QE).
Whether or not September 2026 is yet one more profitable month for mortgage charges stays to be seen.
February Might As soon as Once more Be a Successful Month for Mortgage Charges
The best way issues are shaping up, this February might nonetheless be the massive winner because it has been traditionally, particularly if that delayed January jobs report is available in gentle subsequent Wednesday.
There’s additionally CPI on Friday, so we’ll have a clearer image lower than per week from now.
If these studies are available in chilly, which is fully attainable and maybe even possible primarily based on studies we’ve already seen like ADP and Challenger, mortgage charges might sink to the bottom ranges in three years.
And it’s even attainable we might see a sub-6% 30-year mounted mortgage fee this month as effectively.
In the event you’re available in the market to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage, pay shut consideration. It’s a doubtlessly massive week.
However as you’ll be able to see, there’s no assure mortgage charges will probably be lowest in a given week or month. And even yr.
Nonetheless, there are definitely some developments to pay attention to and to bear in mind so as to add to your mortgage rate tracking tools.
And whatever the month or yr, know that yearly is crammed with alternatives the place mortgage charges plunge, generally just for a day or two. So at all times be able to pounce!
Earlier than creating this web site, I labored as an account government for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on expertise within the early 2000s impressed me to start writing about mortgages 19 years in the past to assist potential (and current) dwelling consumers higher navigate the house mortgage course of. Comply with me on X for decent takes.
