Exhausting to consider it’s that point of the yr once more, however right here we’re in mid-December. Who’s prepared for the 2026 mortgage fee predictions?
Prepared or not, everyone seems to be starting to weigh in and meaning I have to as effectively.
Earlier than I do, let’s take a second to look again at my 2025 predictions.
I referred to as for a variety of 5.875% to six.75%, which was barely exceeded at instances and as you most likely know, a hair excessive.
We by no means received to sub-6% in 2025 (but!), however we’re actually shut and I do count on it to occur in 2026. So one thing to sit up for.
Earlier than I offer you all my predictions for 2026, let’s check out predictions from different trade heavyweights to see what they assume.
I’ll say that the primary takeaway so far is your typical pundit or forecast is fairly flat.
Most count on mortgage charges to type of hover at present ranges and never do a complete lot in 2026.
My tackle that’s A) we all the time see a number of motion in charges in any given yr, even when they wind up in the identical place from January to December.
For instance, they may begin at 6.25% and finish at 6.25%. however they seemingly received’t keep there all yr lengthy.
There will probably be ups and downs alongside the best way, and thus a number of alternatives to lock in a better mortgage rate. So keep vigilant!
My different thought is that B) the consensus is normally, drum roll, unsuitable! So if everybody expects the identical factor to occur, likelihood is they’ll all be unsuitable.
So sure, you understand I’m going to go towards the grain and be the contrarian I usually am. However for good cause.
MBA 2026 Mortgage Charge Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.4%
Second quarter 2026: 6.4%
Third quarter 2026: 6.4%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.4%
As acknowledged, the phrase of the yr for 2026 mortgage charges is “flat.” Everybody appears to assume they’ll do completely nothing.
It’s fairly lame to be trustworthy. For instance, the Mortgage Bankers Affiliation (MBA) is just going with 6.4% for the 30-year fastened for each quarter of 2026, based on their December twelfth Mortgage Finance Forecast.
It doesn’t get any extra boring than that, particularly when their present forecast is 6.3% for This fall 2025.
They principally count on nothing to occur, which doesn’t give us quite a bit to work with.
I suppose the silver lining is that they don’t count on mortgage charges to go up!
Redfin 2026 Mortgage Charge Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.3%
Second quarter 2026: 6.3%
Third quarter 2026: 6.3%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.3%
Prepared for an equally boring mortgage fee forecast? Nicely, I’ve received one for you, and it comes courtesy of Redfin.
Just like the MBA, they’re calling flat mortgage rates for ALL of 2026. However as an alternative of a median of 6.4% every quarter, they went with 6.3%.
Not a lot to chew on right here. The actual property brokerage, now owned by Rocket, believes the Fed has arrived at a “impartial place” and that “ought to hold mortgage charges within the low-6% vary.”
Once more, not less than they’re not calling for increased mortgage charges, so there’s that.
Realtor 2026 Mortgage Charge Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.3%
Second quarter 2026: 6.3%
Third quarter 2026: 6.3%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.3%
And the way about Realtor’s forecast. They count on the 30-year fastened to “common 6.3% throughout 2026.”
In different phrases, the very same forecast of Redfin. They name it a “slight enchancment” from the 6.6% common seen in 2025.
However it can stay “effectively above the 4% historic common recorded from 2013 to 2019.”
Fannie Mae 2026 Mortgage Charge Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.2%
Second quarter 2026: 6.1%
Third quarter 2026: 6.0%
Fourth quarter 2026: 5.9%
Lastly, a 2026 mortgage fee forecast that has some motion. Granted, it’s not a ton, but it surely’s one thing.
In Fannie Mae’s latest Housing Forecast from November thirteenth, they’re calling comparatively flat rates of interest subsequent yr, which slowly descend.
They begin round 6.2% and end the yr round 5.9%, falling about 10 foundation factors every quarter.
I’ve been round lengthy sufficient to know mortgage charges don’t transfer in a straight line up or down. However the normal takeaway is that they count on them to enhance additional by the top of 2026.
Once more, consistent with different forecasts.
Freddie Mac 2026 Mortgage Charge Predictions
First quarter 2026: n/a
Second quarter 2026: n/a
Third quarter 2026: n/a
Fourth quarter 2026: n/a
For no matter cause, Freddie Mac is now not offering any kind of ahead steerage on housing, together with mortgage charges
This regardless of conducting a weekly mortgage rate survey that is among the oldest and most reported on.
Final yr they not less than had a month-to-month outlook we may use for tough estimates. Now that’s gone too.
It’s unclear why however they don’t appear to be investing a lot in analysis and forecasts anymore.
NAR 2026 Mortgage Charge Outlook
First quarter 2026: 6.0%
Second quarter 2026: 6.0%
Third quarter 2026: 6.0%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.0%
Subsequent up is the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors, all the time good for a rosy mortgage fee outlook.
Just like the others, they’re going with flat mortgage charges, however at a barely higher 6.0% even.
And if that materializes, they are saying “it might mark a full share level drop from the roughly 7% common at the beginning of 2025.”
Consequently, they consider it may unlock roughly 5.5 million further certified house consumers nationwide.
That features 1.6 million who’re presently renting, who would lastly have the ability to “make the leap into homeownership.”
I’m shocked they didn’t go sub-6% given they’re normally probably the most optimistic, however I digress.
Wells Fargo 2026 Mortgage Charge Outlook
First quarter 2026: 6.15%
Second quarter 2026: 6.15%
Third quarter 2026: 6.20%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.20%
Did I point out most of those forecasts are calling for flat mortgage charges? Welp, right here’s another one courtesy of former prime mortgage lender Wells Fargo.
Of their 2026 Annual Financial Outlook, they stated “we don’t foresee a cloth decline in mortgage charges subsequent yr” and count on “mortgage charges to stay caught above 6% over the following few years.”
So this is likely to be pretty much as good because it will get for a while. However once more, not getting any worse.
Zillow 2026 Mortgage Charge Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6%+
Second quarter 2026: 6%+
Third quarter 2026: 6%+
Fourth quarter 2026: 6%+
Then there’s Zillow, which has been making the headlines for varied causes all yr.
Whether or not it’s sparring with actual property brokerage Compass or trying to develop Zillow Home Loans, apparently with the assistance of some in-house referrals.
To their credit score, they do liken predicting mortgage charges to being “about as tough as predicting subsequent yr’s climate forecast,” even for the consultants.
So that they’re merely going with the road: “Mortgage charges will maintain above 6%.”
Once more, a secure one and the takeaway is flat as soon as once more.
Compass, First American, and Different Charge Predictions
Lastly (earlier than my predictions), we’ve got Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen, who expects a mortgage fee vary of 5.9% to six.9%.
That boils all the way down to a median of 6.4% for the 30-year fastened for all of 2026.
Then there’s First American, which is forecasting mortgage charges to remain within the low-6% vary. Once more, like many of the others.
And HousingWire’s President Diego Sanchez, who has called for a fee vary of 5.75% to six.75%.
That appears pretty affordable given mortgage charges have a tendency to maneuver round fairly a bit in any given yr, versus staying in a single place.
If I left you out, attain out and I’ll add your prediction as effectively!
The Fact’s 2026 Mortgage Charge Prediction
First quarter 2026: 5.875%
Second quarter 2026: 6.375%
Third quarter 2026: 6.125%
Fourth quarter 2026: 5.75%
Okay, my flip lastly. I don’t simply present a variety like a few of the different forecasters. I try to interrupt it down by quarter, utilizing historic information to provide you with my predictions.
Within the first quarter of 2026, I count on the 30-year fastened to fall under 6%! Gasp! I do know, it sounds loopy.
However as I stated, I anticipated that to occur in 2025 and it hasn’t but. With somewhat extra time, I believe we get there.
As for why, it’s continued labor weak spot. The jobs reports have gotten increasingly ugly because the yr has gone on.
And I don’t see a lot cause for them to enhance anytime quickly. Thus I believe a pair extra unhealthy jobs reviews push charges just under 6%, name it 5.875%.
Nonetheless, there will probably be resistance as a result of it’s an enormous threshold. And it requires the 10-year bond yield to fall under 4%, one other huge level of resistance.
If by some means the economic system reveals extra resilience than anticipated, it would go otherwise.
I then count on mortgage charges to rise within the second quarter, as they all the time appear to (peak house shopping for season, go determine). Name it 6.375%.
Then I see us going again down to six.125% within the third quarter, and eventually again to sub-6% ranges within the fourth quarter of 2026.
Unsure precisely how low, but it surely’s attainable we get to five.75% and even decrease if (weak) financial information warrants it.
So not an enormous vary, however there will probably be days and weeks when charges maybe go increased or decrease. So hold your eyes peeled for those who’re available in the market for a mortgage in 2026!
All in all, 2026 needs to be an excellent yr for mortgage charges, with the bottom charges since 2022, which is when lastly they surged increased.
Learn on: How to track mortgage rates with ease.
Earlier than creating this web site, I labored as an account government for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on expertise within the early 2000s impressed me to start writing about mortgages 19 years in the past to assist potential (and present) house consumers higher navigate the house mortgage course of. Comply with me on X for decent takes.
