TD cuts forecast for dwelling gross sales, costs for 2026 after weak exercise in Q1

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It now expects gross sales to fall 1.8% year-over-year and residential costs to maneuver 0.3% decrease nationally.

Economist Rishi Sondhi says housing exercise will seemingly take many of the 12 months to recoup first-quarter losses, as gross sales stay constrained by a subdued financial system, heightened uncertainty and ongoing price of dwelling pressures.

The report gave Ontario and B.C. the sharpest downgrades to gross sales and costs after “important” first-quarter declines, as potential consumers in these provinces nonetheless face important affordability challenges and are seemingly ready for the market to backside out.

Sondhi says pent-up demand “has but to re-emerge as rapidly as beforehand anticipated” in these provinces, suggesting additional value declines could also be wanted.

The report forecasts a rebound for Canadian dwelling gross sales in 2027 following improved financial and job market situations, which may result in progress within the nationwide common value.

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Final modified: March 26, 2026

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